Archive for April, 2010

(This is an article I wrote for Smart Investor in the April 2010 issue titled “House Edge – If you can’t Beat the House, Be the House”)

On 14th February 2010, Singapore made history by opening its doors to the country’s first casino in Resorts World Sentosa.

The casino welcomed its first punter – a middle aged Singaporean woman – at the auspicious time of 12:18 pm on the first day of the Chinese Lunar New Year.

When pronounced in the Cantonese dialect, 12:18 sounds like “prosperity”.

The first bettor was followed by an initial crowd of about 200 enthusiastic gamblers and within hours of the opening, hundreds more were queuing up outside.

At the end of the first three days, a total of 60,000 visitors had thronged the casino. According to industry estimates, the casino is on track to draw 10 million visitors by the end of this year.

What is the draw of a casino? Why do we love its appeal when we know at the end of the day, the casino ALWAYS WINS?

The answer, is that there is “something” about being at a casino. We stand at the entrance, glance at the red carpet, take in the shimmering slot machines and hear the roulette wheels spinning. It’s almost as if we’re the suave, debonair main cast in a carefully scripted Hollywood blockbuster (think Casino Royale).

Let’s consider an interesting question here – why DOES the casino always win?

To understand why a casino always wins, we have to understand a term called…

The House Edge

The “house edge” is the casino’s average profit from a player’s bet. For example, in Roulette, the house edge is about 5%. That means for every $100 bet, the casino keeps $5 as profit, and returns the other $95 to the players as winnings, on average.

If all the roulette players in a casino collectively wager $10 million on a Saturday evening, the casino expects to pay back around $9.5 million as winnings and keep around $500,000 as profit.

In Baccarat, the house edge is “only” 1.2%. This means that on average, the casino keeps $1.20 for itself and pays out $98.80 out of every $100 wagered. It seems like a good deal for the player – or does it?

On the average, Baccarat plays at a rate of 60 hands per hour, or 1 every minute.

Simply because of this, even a small house edge, like 1.2%, means that you can expect to lose half your money after 1 hour of play, 75% after 2 hours, 90% after 3 hours and 95% after 4 hours – a stunning result.

This is the casino’s secret: to keep you playing LONG ENOUGH; because the longer you play, the closer you get to losing everything. That’s another way of saying that the casino always wins in the long run.

Now we understand why all casinos try to give you an “Alice in Wonderland playing experience” complete with free flow of drinks and sandwiches. No prizes for guessing why it’s also impossible to find windows or clocks in the casino. Why would you want to keep track of time when you’re having a ball placing your bets?

Let’s draw a parallel to trading here. Is it possible to gain a “house edge” over the financial markets?

The answer, is an emphatic yes.

As a trader, I have found that 2 keys above all else, give me a “house edge” – Consistency and Discipline.

Consistency

The best traders typically are the most consistent ones.  Consistency here refers to a few scenarios:

1)    Limiting your risk

Great traders never risk more than 1-3% of their capital per trade. I just can’t over-emphasize the importance of this rule. As the trading colloquial goes “Amateur traders are concerned with how much they can make; professional traders are concerned with how much they will lose.”

Inconsistency creeps in when a trader takes on different levels of risk for different trades without understanding the consequences. This mostly occurs after a trader experiences a string of losses; and packs on the risk to “make up for past losses.”

2)    Trust the markets

Many traders take or pass on trades based on “feeling” or “intuition.” This can be very hazardous. When a trade doesn’t fit all your trading criteria, don’t take it. When it does, take it. I have come to find that the latter is in fact, the more difficult one to follow. Sometimes even when all the criteria fits for us to take a trade, we pass it up because we “had a bad feeling.”

Remember, to have the “house edge” working for you, you have to have the odds in your favour and allow it to play out in the long run. The best application of this principle is to NOT pass on a trade when it fits ALL your criteria.

This rule becomes all the more important to aspiring traders who decide to “abandon” a trading plan and conclude that trading is “risky” after a couple of negative results.

Do not trust your gut – trust the markets.

Discipline

Discipline is the hallmark of every great achiever, so why should it be any different when it comes to trading? Discipline in trading takes many forms, but we will explore the more important ones here:

1)    Place a stop immediately after entering a trade

As simple as this sounds, I’m willing to bet (no pun intended) that not many traders follow this one simple rule. Traders get lazy and convince themselves that placing a stop immediately is not as important as “catching the right price.”

Variations of this bad habit include loosening a stop or “doubling-down,” which is to trigger ANOTHER trade when the trade is not going in your favour.

This can be an “addictive” habit especially if a trader flukes a win when doing this. The trader’s downfall eventually comes when a trade is doubled-down to an extent that it never recovers.

2)    Mis-timed entries and exits

As humans, we are basically motivated by “fear of loss” and “hope of gain.” We see this trait playing out in trading when traders try to “chase the price.” In trading, the basic rule is to let our profits run and cut our losses short. However, because of our nature, many of us tend to cut our profits short and let our losses run.

Remember that much of successful trading is counter-intuitive. We must exercise discipline at all times so that we never deviate from our original plan of entries and exits.

Ever wondered why casino owners like Steve Wynn, Stanley Ho and Sheldon Adelson are billionaires? That’s because they fully understand the secret of the “house edge” and never deviate from their “trading plan.”

As traders, we need to do the same. With consistency and discipline as our “house edge”, we can firmly stack the odds in our favour and emerge the ultimate winner in the long-term.

Be the casino – because the casino ALWAYS WINS.

What else do you think will help you “gain the house edge” and “be the casino”?

Give me your thoughts and comments below

(Download the PDF version of the article here)

I took 2 trades this week. Let’s have a look at them:

1)  19th April: Short GBP/JPY at 140.72

I took this trade because the chart was moving in a nice series of lower lows and lower highs – that confirmed the downtrend for me. The additional boost was the gap of 50 pips downwards at market opening.

I also gave this call LIVE on CNBC at 12.25pm the same day when I said to short GBP/JPY at 140.55.

I had a risk/reward ratio of 200 pips on this one. The price was about 135 pips in the money for me before it staged a sharp reversal and took it out at my stop. On hindsight (and a bit of justification), I should have closed out half a lot when it was 100 pips in the money (half my target), and moved my stop it breakeven for a risk-free trade. Haiz! Schoolboy mistake!

Result: 200 pips loss. Here’s the chart:

(Click to enlarge)

2)  19th April: Short GBP/USD at 1.5278

As with the previous trade, my thought process was ditto on this one. There was also a gap of about 60 pips during market opening. All these “gaps” happened because of the big news that the SEC was suing Goldman Sachs. I read the news like a happy camper and went short on this one too.

“Fundamentally driven, technically executed.” That’s my style of trading.

Sterling was also heading down, hence the decision to go short. Price was 90 pips in the money before it reversed (yes Mario, rub salt into your own battered wounds!).

Result: 102 pips loss. Here’s the chart:

(Click to enlarge)

Lost 2 out of 2 trades this week!

“So Mario, are you going to burrow into a hole now that your CNBC call didn’t materialise in front of a televised audience of hundreds of millions?”

(Mario): Nopes.

“Why not?”

(Mario): I made the mistakes on purpose so that my dear blog subscribers don’t have to make them.”

WAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!

I’ll probably pop into the ATIC event at Suntec this weekend to check it out. Hopefully I’ll catch some of you there! Remember to say hi!

Have a great weekend yall!

Having been a Forex trader for years, I’ve found that it is of paramount importance to partner a reliable broker.

You see, after you get a good solid education on how to trade the Forex Market, your next step would be to open an account and start trading.

I’ve compiled a list of 9 challenges that we traders face when choosing a reliable broker to open an account. Here they are:

1)  “I feel that my broker is a market maker and is trading against me”

We’ve all been there before. You set a trade up, place your targets and stops, and get ready to rock and roll. Unfortunately, the trade doesn’t go your way. It starts to inch closer to your stop loss. As it flirts dangerously close to your stop, you heave a sigh of relief when it appears to be reversing.

However, to your horror, it suddenly hits your stop, takes you out of the trade, makes a killer reversal and continues to move in the direction of your profit target! Sounds familiar doesn’t it?

This friends, is a reality in the Forex brokerage business. Many brokers operate a DEALING DESK which simply means they also trade to speculate for profits. Unfortunately, this sometimes means taking trades against you, the retail trader.

2)  “Slippage is a common occurrence. I hardly get the price I want”

Do be careful when you are attracted to brokers that offer “1 pip spread or zero spread.” Either one of 2 things may occur:

-  You have to pay a high commission on each trade

-  There will be many requotes

Please do your own due diligence and read the fine print on the broker’s terms and conditions.

3)  “I worry about the safety of my funds”

This is definitely high on the agenda of most if not all, retail traders. Unlike the billion dollar institutions which have endless cash at their disposal, many of us are trading with hard earned money. It would be refreshing to come across a solid broker which offers segregated client accounts.

Anyone remembers the Refco debacle? They were at one point the largest broker in the world before filing for Chapter 11 bankkruptcy in October 2005. Many people who opened accounts with them over the years are still finding it a challenge to get their money back.

4)  “It’s too hard to fund my account”

While I agree that many structures need to be in place to check the customer and his/her background, there must be a limit. As a Forex trader and coach, I have had my fair share of grumbles from fellow students who complain that funding their account is just too difficult.

To keep things clean and simple, your broker-of-choice must follow these 3 steps:

-  Have strict Know Your Customer (KYC) and Anti-Money Laundering (AML) protocols

-  Verify client background with copy of passport & proof of residence

-  Provide a variety of funding methods for the trader, e.g. bank transfer, local deposits or credit card

Speed is also of the essence. Some brokers take more than a week or two to approve accounts; which makes one confused on whether its a case of strict regulation or pure inefficiency.

5)  “The customer support has a bad level of service”

This point really riles up most traders. At the very least, your broker-of-choice MUST provide round-the-clock customer support through a live chat function. If for whatever reason, the live chat function is down, then back-up support like phone and email must be readily available.

The second step would be to provide prompt and professional help to the traders.

Look, it’s YOUR company (I’m talking to the tele-support people in the brokers now). If you don’t know the answers to our questions, who would? Quick and competent responses coupled with prompt follow up on the clients needs seem to be lacking in some of the brokers I know today.

6)  “I can only trade Forex and basic commodities”

It has been a joy for me to see some of students blossom and mature into astute investors. Some of them have lament the fact that most brokers only offer currencies and basic commodities like gold and silver for trading on their platform. Come to think of it, it sure would be nice if brokers offer a one-stop shop for traders and investors to trade Forex, Bullion, CFDs, stocks etc. Some do by the way; but they are few and far between.

Even if it’s not for trading, it sure would be nice to see the price of oil, gold, the dollar index etc on ONE platform to get a global perspective on world finance.

I’ve had one student come up to me and say “Man! If only my broker could let me trade Citigroup when it was below $1 last year! I could have made a killing!”

My response was, “Are you going to sit there and whine or find a broker which allows you to do so?”

He got the picture! Not that it makes a difference to this article, but the share price of Citigroup is just under $5 now :)

Bro, if you are reading this article, I am all ready for a dinner treat at El Bulli or The Fat Duck!

7)  “I can only get low leverage”

This is going to be a bigger problem if you select brokers that are based in the US. Many brokers there are now “constrained” by regulatory bodies like the NFA and CFTC to offer LOWER leverage to the retail traders. This is huge. If it happens, my bet is that there would be a MASSIVE EXODUS of traders getting out of brokers which are based in the US.

Is high leverage good? My answer, is Yes. But you’ve GOT TO understand how to use it wisely. If you go with a broker that offers a leverage of 10:1 as opposed to 100:1 or 200:1, then get ready to put down more margin for each trade.

Do yourself a favour today. Go read up on Leverage and how to employ it wisely for your benefit.

My favourite explanation for the term leverage is “doing more with less.”

Is leverage a double-edged sword? Yes. So how would you reduce it to a single-edge one?

Lean a little closer. Press your ear to the computer screen.

(Shouting) “ALWAYS PUT A STOP LOSS!!!!!!”

8)  “My broker doesn’t allow hedging”

Not that I advocate the method of hedging, but it would be good if your broker gives you the flexibility of doing so. Again, brokers in the US do not allow you to do so (don’t look at me. Check with the NFA). Some also have the FIFO rule, which means that you can only exit trades in the same sequence you entered. What??!!

Now, with all that restrictions, time to pack your bags!

9)  “I must have different accounts if I want to trade Micro, Mini and Standard accounts”

Oh puh-leeeeeeease. Dear brokers, why the hassle? The main job of a trader is to control risk. Why can’t we have just ONE account which allows us the flexibility to execute 1 lot, 0.1 lot or 0.001 lot? Isn’t that the exact same thing as having a standard account, a mini account and a micro account?

Wake up people!

So there you have it. The 9 challenges that most if not all, retail traders face. The bigger question is how would we overcome them? Simple. Choose a broker that counters ALL the problems listed above.

As I operate the largest Forex Academy in Asia, I do get my fair share of brokers knocking on my doors, asking me to refer students to them.

I am careful with such practices; as it is my job to source the best brokers out there who HELP traders succeed rather than make their trading journey a seemingly painful one.

The One Broker I’ve Found That Is Really On Our Side

Over the last couple of months, I’ve had the pleasure to be acquainted with a Forex broker called FXPrimus. Initially, I had the impression that they were just “one of them.” However, on closer inspection on their business model, I am pleasantly surprised to find out that they SOLVE ALL 9 of the challenges that I have just listed above. Pretty cool!

Some of their BEST features include:

1)  Straight Through Processing (STP) – they DO NOT trade against their clients

2)  Segregated client accounts at Tier 1 banks; which are independently Administered by Turnstone Corporate (Mauritius) Limited – An Industry First

3)  Annual audits performed by world-renowned firm, Ernst & Young

4)  MT4 platform, the most preferred trading platform worldwide

5)  Trade over 70 currency pairs AND instruments like bullion, oil and gas

6)  Syariah compliant accounts

7)  No requotes during normal market volatility

8)  High leverage (up to 500:1)

9)  Minimum funding as low as USD250

Give them a try. I am particularly pleased at the speed of execution. You can open a demo or live account by clicking the banner below.

Risk Aversion in Forex Markets

I took 3 trades this week. Let’s have a look at them:

1)  12th April: Long AUD/USD at 0.9250

After AUD/USD reached a new high of 0.9383 in the wee hours of the morning on 12th April, I told myself to prepare for a Long. The region of 0.9250 provided good support for the trade. Additionally, it was near the trendline on the H1 chart. I decided to exit at the price of 0.9342 because it didn’t look like it was heading up convincingly.

Result: 92 pips profit. Here’s the chart:

(Click to enlarge)

2)  14th April: Short GBP/JPY at 144.39

This was intended to be a mid-term trade. On the H4 chart, a nice resistance was formed in the region of 144.71. I took a short at 144.39 with an initial stop at 145.29 (90 pips away from my entry).

As the price dropped, I tightened my stop to lock in a guaranteed profit of 50 pips. The price was over 100 pips in the money at one point, but it shot up to hit my stop loss of 143.89.

Result: 50 pips profit. Here’s the chart:

(Click to enlarge)

3)  6th April: Short GBP/USD at 1.5454

I hate to admit it, but this is a “swing trade.”

I basically took a “swing” at GBP/USD because I didn’t like the way it was moving upwards! There I said it!

(gasp)! What! Mario! How could you?!

Aren’t you the person who always says we gotta have a reason for entering EVERY trade?

Yes I did! Here’s the reason: I felt like it! hahahaha…

Hope you appreciate the honesty!

I was getting amused with the way the price kinda obeyed my command for a while; that is why you’ll see from the account history that I tightened my stop along the way too.

Puh-leeeeeease DON’T try this at home! It was wrong!

Result: 25 pips profit. Here’s the chart:

(Click to enlarge)

Trade Update for:

7th April: Long CAD/JPY at 93.50

My stop of 91.50 was hit on 16th April. The price plummeted about 200 pips in 4 hours. Pretty sure it was the disappointing manufacturing numbers that cleaned house (released on Friday 16th April, 8.30pm). The economists were expecting a figure of 1%, but the actual number printed was 0.1%.

Still bullish for CAD/JPY long term though. Gotta re-group and find a nice entry point for the next long trade.

Result: 200 pips loss. Here’s the chart:

(Click to enlarge)

That’s all folks!