(As featured on Business World Online, Philippines, 24 March 2013)
In 2013, we find many financial markets around the world still immersed in the depths of an economic crisis. A crisis that will see central banks in battles amongst themselves, going forward into the year.
Today’s unbacked fiat currencies are at the root of an emerging global monetary problem. While the talk of “recovery” in recent months now populates headlines, the desperate actions of politicians and central bankers show the contrary.
The Federal Reserve (Fed), European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of Japan (BOJ), cannot stop creating new base money. Central Banks want to present confidence to the markets. Where the risk lies for monetary policymakers is in the value of the debt on bank balance sheets, and the value of the debt across the broader economy. This debt is being held at par because interest rates should be much higher. All of this has led to a situation where interest rates do not reflect true inflation.
There is a saying “the further back you look into the past, the more certain you can be about the future.” History has shown that currency debasement ALWAYS leads to inflation and ultimately hyperinflation. This happened to the Roman Empire, the Weimar Republic in Germany, Argentina and most recently Zimbabwe where inflation peaked at 7.96 billion percent.
You would think that people would learn from history. Well, apparently not.
(My interview with Forex Magnates, 14 February 2013. Click here to read from Forex Magnates.)
Kicking off our monthly regional update column is a look at South East Asia. Having co-hosted the IFXEXPO in Macau, Forex Magnates witnessed attendees showing high levels of optimism in regards to the prospects of forex and trading in South East Asia. During 2012, the region experienced growing trading volumes along all asset classes with Singapore’s financial center leading the way. Also, in 2012 Non Deliverable Forwards (NDF) were a hot product in the region. Numerous financial firms including GFI Group, Bloomberg, and LCH Clearnet expanded their list of NDFs of the region’s currencies in response to increased demand from traders and businesses.
(Thank you friends, because of your support, your FX1 chief coach was featured on 中国日报网, 搜狐焦点网 and 和讯网on 17 August 2012.)
1. Could you tell us something about the Vietnam economy?
Vietnam is one of Asia’s best performing economies right now. It’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) has expanded 4.7% from April-June compared to the same period last year.
Vietnam is targeting GDP growth of 6% this year, although Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung said last month that growth of 5.6% to 5.8% this year would be considered a success.
I am also confident that the Vietnam economy will continue to perform well this year.
2. What do you think about current Forex trading scene in Vietnam?
There is a lack of proper education about Forex and currency trading in Vietnam. The most people know is the exchange rate between the US dollar and the Vietnam dong.
However, Forex is more than that. People need to know how interest rates affect their personal and business lives.
FXPRIMUS Director of Education & Training answers your top Forex question
Ebène Mauritius, Monday, 9 July 2012 – During June, leading global foreign exchange trader, educator and author Mario Sant Singh, looked at a bearish outlook with lack of clarity on the EURUSD, downbeat US employment data putting pressure on the USDJPY exchange rate, an unpredictable outlook on the EURJPY, and upbeat quarterly growth data for Australian GDP pushing the AUD up, and in his AskMarioSingh.com “Your toughest Forex Questions answered daily”.
In his most recent weekly market webinar on July 2nd, he cited a less jittery Forex market, with slow European economic growth, Spain’s negative outlook, and Moody’s downgrading of 15 major banks having been priced into the market, and a forward focus on measures proposed to pull the Eurozone out of its two year debt crisis. Click here to register for the upcoming Weekly Market Outlook LIVE Webinar on 9 July from 8-9pm SGT (GMT+8).
The views of Mario Sant Singh – who is Director of Training & Education at FXPRIMUS, are widely sought after in the Forex industry. His popular blog and his weekly market webinar provide direct channels for both new and experienced traders to improve their knowledge of Forex and related investment markets.