After a break last week, I took 3 trades this week.

The only difference this week is that the trades were taken on a demo account. That’s because I’m in the middle of transferring my funds to the broker FX Primus. I’m pretty pleased with the speed of execution and the level of service they are providing; hence the switch.

Ok let’s get down to it.

1)  18th May: Short EUR/JPY at 115.19

This is fast becoming one of my favourite trades. Downtrend on the EUR/JPY. That’s the clue to go short. I took a short right at the bounce on the trendline. Stop loss was placed above the trendline, above the previous high. Risk to reward ratio is about 1:1.

Result: 131 pips profit. Here’s the chart:

(click to enlarge)

2)  18th May: Long AUD/USD at 0.8766

After the huge sell-off on 6th May, I thought that the downtrend was pretty much over.

Boy! Was I wrong! My initial thought process for this trade was that prices seemed to bounce off the support level at 0.8702. Hence, the decision to go long. I placed the stop about 15 pips below the support level, thinking that it was going to be all uphill from there. Markets proved me wrong!

Result: 81 pips loss. Here’s the chart:

(click to enlarge)

3)  18th May: Short GBP/USD at 1.4461

After the low formed on 17th May, prices seemed to bounce off the resistance level (1.4494) very nicely. Went short near the resistance and placed a stop outside the resistance. My profit was about half the length of the range.

Result: 108 pips profit. Here’s the chart:

(click to enlarge)

That’s it for this week! Do send your comments and I’ll be sure to reply them!

Have a great weekend yall!

I took just 1 trade this week. Let’s have a look at it:

1)  4th May: Long AUD/USD at 0.9255

There was only ONE bias on the back of this trade – the rate hike by the RBA.

I had Bloomberg on, laptop on, and waited with bated breath as I rubbed my hands in glee on the impending announcement.

There were only 2 possible outcomes:

1)  RBA would pause rates at 4.25%

2)  RBA would hike rates to 4.5%

As I expected, the RBA hiked rates to 4.5% which I interpreted as “go long.” However, the reverse happened! Almost immediately after the announcement, the Aussie went into free-fall! I initially had a stop at 0.9210 (45 pips from the entry) but I decided to exit with a 22 pips loss because it wasn’t going the way I intended.

On closer inspection, I realised that it was the relatively dovish statement of the RBA that caused the Aussie to tumble below the 0.9200 level.

In his statement, RBA Governor Glenn Stevens noted that, “As a result of today’s decision, rates for most borrowers will be around average levels. This represents a significant adjustment from the very expansionary settings reached a year ago.”

His statement suggested that the RBA may decide to pause rates in the near future, which caused the free-fall.

Take note that this is the RBA’s 6th rate hike in 7 meetings since October 2009.

Result: 22 pips loss. Here’s the chart:

(Click to enlarge)

The moral of the story? It is risky to trade around “hot news” like the NFP and interest rate decisions by major economies. You never really know which way they are going to swing.

If you do trade around the news, it is imperative that you put your stops in place. Remember, you should NEVER risk more than 2-3% of your capital per trade.

On a side note, what an eventful week it was for the Euro and the Pound!

Both got hammered due to the contagion in Greece and the prospect of a hung parliament respectively.

Here’s a chart of the EUR/JPY which shows a drop of ONE THOUSAND PIPS IN ONE DAY! (Click to enlarge).

Did you catch the move? Share your experience on the blog if you did! I’d be delighted to hear from you!

Trade Update for:

30th April: Short GBP/USD at 1.5360

To re-cap, I took 2 lots on this trade. I closed out one lot at 1.5249 to realise a profit of 110 pips.

For the second lot, I tightened the stop progressively to a level of 1.5280 (to lock in 80 pips profit).

The stop was hit the following Monday, about 10 hours after I exited the first lot.

Result: 11o pips profit on 1st lot, 80 pips profit on 2nd lot. Here’s the chart:

(Click to enlarge)

I took 2 trades this week. Let’s have a look at them:

1)  26th April: Short EUR/USD at 1.3371

Nice downtrend on H1 chart, with a new low formed on 23rd April, 1:00am. This is a clue for me to go short. Triggered an entry 2 candles after the price bounced off the trendline. I placed my stop above the trendline.

I didn’t have a profit target on this one, cos I wanted to close out half my lot when it reached my target of 1.3310. However, I decided to close out the whole position in the end.

Result: 61 pips profit. Here’s the chart:

(Click to enlarge)

2)  30th April: Short GBP/USD at 1.5360. Trade in Progress.

Took this trade early in the morning. Major trend is still down (see daily chart), hence the decision to go short.

Mildly aggressive, because on the stochastics, the line hadn’t turned down from the overbought position yet.

Basic reasoning for the trade is the same as the previous one. New low formed, chart heads up, find a place to go short!

Trade is still in progress by the time market closed, 82 pips in the money.

Here’s the chart:

(Click to enlarge)

What did you learn from this Trade Review? Feel free to comment below!

Trade Update for:

30th April: Short GBP/USD at 1.5360

To re-cap, I took 2 lots on this trade. I closed out one lot at 1.5249 to realise a profit of 110 pips.

For the second lot, I tightened the stop progressively to a level of 1.5280 (to lock in 80 pips profit).

The stop was hit the following Monday, about 10 hours after I exited the first lot.

Result: 11o pips profit on 1st lot, 80 pips profit on 2nd lot. Here’s the chart:

(Click to enlarge)

I took 2 trades this week. Let’s have a look at them:

1)  19th April: Short GBP/JPY at 140.72

I took this trade because the chart was moving in a nice series of lower lows and lower highs – that confirmed the downtrend for me. The additional boost was the gap of 50 pips downwards at market opening.

I also gave this call LIVE on CNBC at 12.25pm the same day when I said to short GBP/JPY at 140.55.

I had a risk/reward ratio of 200 pips on this one. The price was about 135 pips in the money for me before it staged a sharp reversal and took it out at my stop. On hindsight (and a bit of justification), I should have closed out half a lot when it was 100 pips in the money (half my target), and moved my stop it breakeven for a risk-free trade. Haiz! Schoolboy mistake!

Result: 200 pips loss. Here’s the chart:

(Click to enlarge)

2)  19th April: Short GBP/USD at 1.5278

As with the previous trade, my thought process was ditto on this one. There was also a gap of about 60 pips during market opening. All these “gaps” happened because of the big news that the SEC was suing Goldman Sachs. I read the news like a happy camper and went short on this one too.

“Fundamentally driven, technically executed.” That’s my style of trading.

Sterling was also heading down, hence the decision to go short. Price was 90 pips in the money before it reversed (yes Mario, rub salt into your own battered wounds!).

Result: 102 pips loss. Here’s the chart:

(Click to enlarge)

Lost 2 out of 2 trades this week!

“So Mario, are you going to burrow into a hole now that your CNBC call didn’t materialise in front of a televised audience of hundreds of millions?”

(Mario): Nopes.

“Why not?”

(Mario): I made the mistakes on purpose so that my dear blog subscribers don’t have to make them.”

WAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!

I’ll probably pop into the ATIC event at Suntec this weekend to check it out. Hopefully I’ll catch some of you there! Remember to say hi!

Have a great weekend yall!

I took 3 trades this week. Let’s have a look at them:

1)  12th April: Long AUD/USD at 0.9250

After AUD/USD reached a new high of 0.9383 in the wee hours of the morning on 12th April, I told myself to prepare for a Long. The region of 0.9250 provided good support for the trade. Additionally, it was near the trendline on the H1 chart. I decided to exit at the price of 0.9342 because it didn’t look like it was heading up convincingly.

Result: 92 pips profit. Here’s the chart:

(Click to enlarge)

2)  14th April: Short GBP/JPY at 144.39

This was intended to be a mid-term trade. On the H4 chart, a nice resistance was formed in the region of 144.71. I took a short at 144.39 with an initial stop at 145.29 (90 pips away from my entry).

As the price dropped, I tightened my stop to lock in a guaranteed profit of 50 pips. The price was over 100 pips in the money at one point, but it shot up to hit my stop loss of 143.89.

Result: 50 pips profit. Here’s the chart:

(Click to enlarge)

3)  6th April: Short GBP/USD at 1.5454

I hate to admit it, but this is a “swing trade.”

I basically took a “swing” at GBP/USD because I didn’t like the way it was moving upwards! There I said it!

(gasp)! What! Mario! How could you?!

Aren’t you the person who always says we gotta have a reason for entering EVERY trade?

Yes I did! Here’s the reason: I felt like it! hahahaha…

Hope you appreciate the honesty!

I was getting amused with the way the price kinda obeyed my command for a while; that is why you’ll see from the account history that I tightened my stop along the way too.

Puh-leeeeeease DON’T try this at home! It was wrong!

Result: 25 pips profit. Here’s the chart:

(Click to enlarge)

Trade Update for:

7th April: Long CAD/JPY at 93.50

My stop of 91.50 was hit on 16th April. The price plummeted about 200 pips in 4 hours. Pretty sure it was the disappointing manufacturing numbers that cleaned house (released on Friday 16th April, 8.30pm). The economists were expecting a figure of 1%, but the actual number printed was 0.1%.

Still bullish for CAD/JPY long term though. Gotta re-group and find a nice entry point for the next long trade.

Result: 200 pips loss. Here’s the chart:

(Click to enlarge)

That’s all folks!