Those sites are good for you to see the SNB statements.

Here’s what I think on your open position:

1) EUR/CHF is in a downtrend, so going short is the best bet

2) SNB may NOT intervene, because some of their earlier statements include “1.4300 francs is fair value on the basis of simple purchasing-power parity”. Traders have been “waiting” for intervention for the last 800 pips

3) With your position, it’s still OK considering 20 pips; (check your lot size though). Just don’t risk more than 2-3% of your capital per trade.

Btw, I have a Buy position @1.4250 with SL 20pips currently. The position is still opened as of now. Hence, need your advise whether should I keep the position or closed the position (with some TP) and re-enter again when there is a signal from them.
Thanks.

“We are watching exchange rates closely.”

“Exchange rates must reflect the fundamentals of the currency.”

“SNB to sell Swiss Francs.”

These are all examples of their “coded” language.

Yup! EUR/CHF is at an all time low now. It’s in a firm downtrend. Many traders would have added to the momentum once the all-time low price of 1.4307 (achieved in Oct 2008 after the Lehman collapse)was broken.

Mixed signals from the SNB. Check out this article:

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/e5a17a92-3663-11df-8151-00144feabdc0.html

Final Analysis: Don’t predict when the SNB will step in. It can be very painful if the markets are proving otherwise.

If they were serious about intervention, then Hildebrand (SNB chairman) would be more precise in his language.

Remember, in any intervention, the central bank WOULD SIGNAL their intention; primarily because they want to enlist the help of traders to push the price in the direction they want.

Yup, the EUR/CHF sure has fallen a lot since the trade I took.

It came within 10 pips of its ALL-TIME-LOW (1.4307 in Oct 2008).

At its current price, it looks juicy for a BUY. Good trade to take – play with 2% risk. Nice upside if SNB steps in. If they don’t, then 2% risk is well affordable.

Yes, you are right. You can say that the chart is ranging between 1.4780 and 1.5200.

Regarding the “spike down” followed by the massive move upwards of about 260 pips:

1) Typical of a “short squeeze” (google the term to get the exact definition)

2) Due to a war of words between the European Commission and UK Treasury Secretary Liam Byrne. Click on the link to listen:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/today/hi/today/newsid_8569000/8569657.stm

Here’s an interesting fact on Bloomberg:

“Wagers on the pound weakening against the dollar outnumber futures that profit on a rise by EIGHT TIMES MORE than when George Soros made $1 billion betting against the currency in 1992.”

With all this news, your next question would be “How would I know which news FOR SURE affects the currency I’m playing?”

Answer: You DON’T.

“As a trader, your job is to react. Not predict.” – Mario Singh