China’s new birth policy: Not as simple as one, two, three

THIS WEEK’S TOPIC: What will be the impact, if any, of China’s new policy to allow couples to have up to three children?

China’s story is similar to Singapore’s. China ran a one-child policy for almost 40 years before replacing it with a two-child policy in 2016 and now to three. We had a two-child policy which ran for 15 years from 1972 to 1987. We then implemented the baby bonus scheme in 2001.

China’s results (like Singapore’s) will be muted at best because there are three deeper issues that need to be addressed before we see sustainable impact. Firstly, support measures. China needs to ensure their support measures (including lower educational costs and housing support) are strong attractions for the people. Secondly, workplace policies. China needs the support of employers to ensure that gender discrimination does not become rife in the workplace so that working mums can take appropriate maternity leave.

Finally and most importantly, socio-cultural forces. After decades of strict one- and two-child policies, certain narratives would have become deeply entrenched within the people, not least the stigma against large families. These notions have to be reversed and it won’t be easy.